Balance of Power

[Mota Boy]

So, as of late the U.S. has decided to exercise it's muscle. Before, we've been fairly willing to go along with coalitions, except when Clinton disasterously decided that NATO would be fine to bomb Serbia if the U.N. refused (the politics of which can be discussed later). Now the U.S. under Bush decided that it doesn't matter what any governing body says as long as we can invade Iraq. We could discuss the legitimacy of the U.N., but I'll contain that to another thread. Right now, I'd like to discuss the geopolitical implications of that action.

It seems that Europe has decided that getting closer is suddenly very practical in order to counterbalance U.S. power. The traditional Westphalian system (what a great term for political science geeks to throw around to imediately alienate the masses, eh?) broke down with the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union and the immediate U.S. hegemony. America's "unipolar moment" turned into a unipolar decade and beyone, yet 2004 seemed to see the first attempts to counterbalance U.S. hegemony.

In this post, I'll attempt to line up the powers that seem to be taking shape at the start of this decade in hope that we'll all attempt to guess the ultimate outcome. Will the Westphalian system (states balancing one another so that one never becomes too powerful) come back into play? Or will hegemony fall out of play? Will it ultimately be replaced, as a former professor of mine likes to argue, that it will result in a layered system? He bases it on the historic Asian system that accepts the primacy of one nation - China up until 1895 or Japan between 1895 and 1945 - the states accept the primacy of one nation and exist under it, knowing that they cannot counterbalance, until another state comes in to replace it.

To me, the main "states" in the coming era are America, the European Union, Russia (and it's block), China, India and Japan.

American is attempting to fight off growing Chinese power with a combination of Japanese, Indian and South Korean support. Russia and China are attempting to get closer to ward off increasing U.S. power in the region and the E.U. is closing together and working on a strategy in a world where both Russia and the U.S. are increasingly belligerant and hostile to it's interests. I'll withhold my own perspective on this issue until a bit later, but I'd be most interested in your own ideas about the coming global fight for power. How will the Middle East come into play? Does Asia matter more than Europe? {Note: U.S. trade with Asia has been greater than that with Europe for over two decades now.} What will global alliances look like in 2050, if you could be bothered to project that far?

[RXP]

EU is never gonna be a player, it's so fucking divided and gay. Soon as there's an economic shock to its system it will be in crisis. There is no way it will recover with any sort of speed. It will have to wait for all the individual economies to cycle again and hope they sync up.

And to all the people who hate the bombing of Milosvich what the fuck is wrong with you? If the UN doesn't do anything to stop ethnic cleansing it's lost it's legitimacy and has become for want of a better word (perhaps useless) gay. Clinton rocks.

The new era, well the US will become dormant again. Isolationist. But that all depends on Asia and Europe if they continue to fund their deficit then they can still be the world police man I love. But soon as there's an economic shock to either of those systems the loans seize up and the first thing to go will be the US's empire. The baby boom generation is gonna be cashing in soon and the US needs all her resources to support them.

To be honest I can't see a new world order. There is no country that will keep the US in line. The only thing that will is world public opinion and the deficit in the US. That will result in the US become isolationlist, that's what will ultimately 'balance' out the world.

But in this new balanced world it will mean that fuckers can do what they want because the UN doesn't have the balls to do anything.

Still the US will be a sleeping giant, if it's provoked ala Pearl Habour/9/11 or whatever it will come out guns ablaze.

IMHO of course.

[wheelchairman]

I always find it foolish when people say that the EU will be a counter-balance to the US. If the EU becomes a serious power (which I truly hope it does not) then it will probably be working a lot with the US, what will happen is...hm let's take the Serbian conflict, European Nations and America invaded NATO, now that they are invading, the EU has been fighting for more and more power over the rebuilding process from America (and has been getting it) so it's EU business interests that are winning in the end right now.

So the EU and the US would work together, and then argue over the carcass basicaly. That's how I think EU relations will be. Perhaps this will change with the creation of an EU army (which I hope doesn't happen).

China may eventually be able to challenge the US on something. But you should think who does the US owe a lot of money to? Isn't China one of the main money-lenders? Either way, there is a lot of capital from China flowing into the US. And one has to ask themselves, why? Why does China lend the US money if they are enemies? Personally I haven't thought much about this, so I don't have an answer, but it is an interesting thing.

India and South Korea (both strong economies) will never become superpowers, they aren't increasing at the rate of China, and they really just aren't particularly active on the world stage. But I don't think about them much either, although India has a lot of internal political difficulties as well.

[RXP]

Problem with India is the population. Fuckers won't stop having kids.

[the original pyro]

"How will the Middle East come into play?"

It doesn't chage much. By 2050? We better be driving hydrogen cars by then, because gas and oil will be too expensive. What we would hope for is that over the next couple of decades a dependancy for oil is phased out. Without oil, the middle east is nothing but a desert full of a backwards people. I suppose once its economies are ruined it can be used as a source of cheap labour, but I dont see why people would use it in place of current labour sources.

[HornyPope]

One of the ideas I had lately is the world progresses no longer in terms of national aliances but strictly economic. I see a future where IMF (international monetery fund) and the WTO (world trade organisation) and the WB (world bank) are only few powerful entities among dozens of major players. It's obvious that each will have a geographic influance zone but it will no longer mind the political froniters; for example, one company* will be based in Frankfurt (on Main) with pool of support in Switzerland, Burgandy (in France), Manchuria (China) and one of the Japanese island. Neither of the regions has much in common with the other but the local politicians will support it never the less because the company* has cut them a favourable deal. In contrast, other regions of Germany, Japan and whatever will deal exclusively through another company. Hence the political frontiers so many millions have died over in 20th century alone will carry no significant difference in terms of one's allegiance.

* when I say a 'company' I wish to clarify that I do not refer to the traditional understanding of a multi-national corporation like GM or Mcdonalds. The said entities (WB, IMF) are a board of economists and former politicians with the contacts to transfer vast wealths from groups of investors (usualy in form of national banks) to a client (usualy in form of a leader of a nation) who accepts certain conditions in return for the money. It's not a lending agency per se because the conditions they impose far trascend the typical lender-client relationship. I don't know what to call these entities to be honest. But whatever the name is, I see a lot of them growing in the future in various fields. They will lend money, they will collect money, they will sponsor wars, peace, summits, they will contribute to elections, they will buy entire industries out of bankruptcy etc... These entities will spread wherever they can and no political boundary will stop them -- some countries might outlaw such companies but likely this ban won't matter a lot on the international scene.

So I think you're asking the wrong questions, Mota. Or at least IMHO. I would write more but I haven't even explained these speculations to myself so i'll first try and see if it all makes sense together in my head.

[Satanic_Surfer]

This will tend to look like some sort of Science Fiction now, but tell me... speculating about science and it's possibillities is a sort of fiction, isnt it?

The American Empire (even called the United States of America) will never fall, at least not in a geographical way, it will always be on the map and that way it will always tend to encourage people to start up movements of nationalism, but these groups in the future will spend too much time explaining their nationalist love for their country that they will be compared to other Nazi organizations through history, ratherly than to Conservative ones.
they struggle real hard to build up an empire as great as they had in the old days when cars had 4 wheels, the American flag was not a war crime symbol and when there actually was a race of human kind that actually were BLACK!
The American Empire will still call itself a "Democracy" but the only way to have a right to vote, is if you have fought for your country in the Army, the Navy or the Space Invaders.
And if you have comitted a crime (a crime of ANY level) your right to vote may be taken away from you, even if you vote for a left wing or even center party, your right to vote might be taken away directly.
The American politicans are proud to be the fair winners of every election, the American Party (with the sign of a Christian cross in a halo) carried up by an elephant, promote extreme fascist opinions and they pay a lot of attention in having certain "vacation days" for their people, if they join demonstrations and manifests in the honor of George W Bush, Ronald Reagan, Adolf Hitler or Ronald McDonald.

The United States of Europe (even called the European Union) will never actually take a step, and when the economical crisis comes due to oil is drying in the middle east, the Arabian countries are no longer willing to slave for us (well i live in Europe so i say "us" on that one) just like the Asian people will stop their cheap plastic and car corporations.
That will stop the economy in the USE to keep balancing that much that a great gap between the rich and th epoor classes is gonna occur, and just as Karl Marx said, that when Capitalism is growing too big for it's own survival, the people are gonna see what it is doing and the militant resistence is gonna grow bigger.
The USE will no longer be seemed to be a peace project, though they will still use that as propaganda in lack of better ways to think positive over the USE.
Instead it is gonna be replaced by 2 more groups and Europe will more look like Korea than an economical welfare, i will get to those groups soon.

The Republican Kingdom of Asia (nowadays known as Asia) will be a hard-on empire wich none of it's enemies wants to have conflicts with because they hav ean image of being in love with their enemies blood, they would die to kill you, yes... they are COMMUNISTS!!!
Not Marxists or Socialists, but Stalinist Communists, of course they will have their peaceful sides too but when it comes to centralizing power and a greater use of an army, they cannot any longer be counted as a real Communist empire, they will more and more look like the Soviet Union but they will set a death sentence on anyone who compares them to the Soviet Union. The Republican Kingdom of Asia has been, to people, connected to the Royal Communist Party (r). And the only resistence in it's own area is a small group of capitalists from pre-South Korea and a growing militant resistence from Anarko-Syndicalist movements from pre-Japan, such as Anti Fascist Action and Machine Liberation Front that developed from Animal Liberation Front, but since nature is ruined and no animals no longer can live in real woods except for the few ones that still exists in pre-Japan where these groups hide, they nowadays liberate machines instead of animals.

The Royal Communist Party (r) (today non existing but buidlt upon many left wing extremist organisations and parties from different countries around the world) will be ruling about all places in Asia and reach up to the Middle East, that has started to develop a working society by the help of the Royal Communist Party (r), this has totally fucked up the old American leaders since they no longer have anyone to exploit, only more enemies of tougher kind.
That is about the only positive thing about the RCP(r). And for that reason, poor countries from the United States of Europe, are talking about joining them. But with a whole lot of poor countries and no rich ones, there aint no equality to be made since equality cannot be made unless it's everywhere, for if it isnt, it isnt equality, or at least, that's how "Class Struggling Anarchists" says, a worldwide resistence movement, resently it was made "illegal" and any member of it will be shot through the head, unless the member shows the secret hideouts of the Anarchists, then he will only serve a life long sentence in jail, though there are yet no one that has done that, due to that no one has told where the hideouts are located, and nobody believes they would get a sentence that soft, anyways!
I choose not to mention the Anarchists for themselves here because there are simply no more information about them than that, and that they are believed to be behind big bombs that has exploded in military facilities of the American Empire's, around the world.



This is about how our future is gonna look like til 2050:

2010: RCP(r) in China takes over big pieces of land, not in a geographical way, but in a political way, Democracies in the areas tend to vote for them and become Monarchies.
Arnold Schwarzenegger declares war (from USA of course) upon North Korea.
Ronald McDonald is mad because he thinks Arnold Schwarzenegger is taking too much political publicity from him.
The economy in EU is falling down.

2020: Politicans in the European Union leaves it to join the United States of Europe, while the rest of them stays as small democracies, soon to be boycotted by the empires in order to not survive.
The United States of Europe includes many politicans from The American Party and they want a greater connection between Europe and America (yes the whole of America is now one country, just like the whole of Europe.)
The Royal Communist Party (revolutionaries) in Asia decides to declare war against the American Empire, for all business trade between the countries has been cut off.
An Anarchist network has devveloped from the underground and nobody knows from where, or what purposes it has, but they talk about takin gpart in the 3rd World War wich they think has been going on for the past 20 years but is going to grow in the future, nobody believes them.

2030: Arnold Schwarzenegger's son, Adolf Schwarzenegger declares that the few warfree zones are gonna become places for soldiers to live, that will turn out to become one more war about that instead.
The reds are taking over big parts of United States of Europe after it's fall, and it fell because they found out that the president had got given a blowjob from Monica W Bush and another war got started, a war between the feminists and those who thinks that "oral sex is not even sex!"
A great European leader is leading the United States of Europe, his name is Ronald McDonald and he's a bit jealous of all the Schwarzenegger posters everywhere but he still wants to get closer economically to the "Svassenberger" family as he calls them.

2040: The American Empire is loosing political power, they still exist but they cant afford to do much since all the oil in the world has dried out and the economy is falling, some people wonders why there was no REAL socialist choise back in the time where there lived black people in the country?
Because in 2033 the holocaust of blacks started, all blacks died and Adolf Schwarzenegger is proud to make the world a better place.
The Commies takes over the Middle East in 2039 and the people there scream for change.

2050: Okay finally the reds are falling, and the people in the Middle East are capitalists and everybody wants to live there, the problem is that you have to believe in Islam t oget in, 70% of world's population are now Muslims in "The Free World in the Middle".
The American Empire doesnt exist but America exists on the map... most of it has turned into desert though and there are only 3 big cities in the country, they are Sin City, McDonald Town and Sim City 7000.
McDonald town is known for being a right wing place while Sim Cite 7000 has lots of working class people, Sin City nobody knows about because people dont live there, cuz no one is allowed to stay in that city for more than one week in a row.
Half of Earth is now Red Zones, or either owned by the reds (Communists) but no towns exists, people live in own buildt houses a bit here and there, or in caves.
The only people who live happy are the people in Sim City 7000 where no government exists, the people in pre-Middle East and the people who flew away to Pluto after a sign they saw on the sky, saying "Shut the fuck up, you're disturbing the peace, stop your warfare because on Pluto we cannot sleep".
The "black race" has died, rumours are spreading about that in the woods of pre-Japan there live a black man and a black woman with the Anarchists and goes by the name of Adamantum and Evangelical.

All around the world, people repeat 2 quotes of Albert Einstein...

"I dont know by what weapons 3rd World War will be fought, but the FOURTH will be fought with sticks and stones."

and...

"The problems in the world today cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them."

By the way... On Pluto, people now realize that there were no Angels living there, so groups of "the leaders" and "those who just followed you guys to Pluto" are starting up a great wars and sticks and stones are starting to fly through the air...

[sKratch]

Holy fucking shit you consistently have ridiculously long replies.

[Satanic_Surfer]

The long replies is a subconscious thing... it measures the length of the dick.

[Vera]

speculating about science and it's possibillities is a sort of fiction, isnt it?

Well, the thing about science is that after it speculates, it researches. Tries to prove the speculation and if it turns out wrong, it tries to form a statement that is scientifically proven to be a fact. More research is done. Things are questioned. Etc.

So no, not sort of fiction.

Also, United States of Europe? No, dude, shut the fuck up. Your theories are so fucked up I can't even begin to tell you how fucked up they are. I shall only say that you remind me of this one kid in my school. The day he gains some actual political power and status is the day I move out of Finland.

And if you're from Sweden, well, I guess that leaves me Norway. Or Estonia.