I feel like this should be it's own thread.
A point that can't be ignored: Even people that know next to nothing about The Offspring have GOT to know that Dexter is at least well into his 40s just based on how long The Offspring have been around. That's not going to sit well with the target audience that this song needs to catch on with in order to be successful. Especially since a lot of this kind of music is based on the imagery associated with being young and partying.
I think this song would be a lot more successful if they just made it the same sort of thing, but made it sound like an actual Offspring song. For example, YGGFK or WDYGAJ sound like a lot of the music that was (and still is) popular, but they have a distinct Offspring sound to them as well. This song just sounds like a 100% attempt at sounding like all the other radio pop that's out there.
Oh yeah, and as for how well I think the song will do commercially: I'd say it's catchy enough that radio stations will at least give it a try for a little while, but it will fall off the charts pretty quickly. A minor hit that falls well short of the mark.